Political Picture by korada.com: What if Election is held right now?
In 2014 elections, TDP, Janasena and BJP teamed up and kept Jagan 5 lakh votes away from winning. Though the three parties combined to attack YCP, Jagan ‘s party has gained pretty good number of votes. The association between TDP and BJP is weakening and Janasena is getting ready to contest in next elections.
What if the three parties contest individually? Will it be beneficial to Jagan ‘s YCP? What if election is conducted right at the moment?
In order to evaluate this, korada.com has travelled to Chittoor, Kurnool, Prakasam, Guntur, Krishna, Godavari districts, Visakhapatnam district and interacted. This is not a survey. It is an attempt to know the opinion of public. According to details that we get, this is the political picture in the state.
Who voted for Jagan during 2014 and why?
Reddy, SC, Christians, Muslims have all voted to YCP.
Many people who voted for YCP are those who were benefitted from social schemes (especially Arogya Sri and Fee Reimbursement) introduced by YS ‘s government.
Those who wish to vote for a party that survey says will win have voted for YCP.
Those who are furious on Congress have cast their votes for YCP.
Government employees cast their votes to YCP with anger on Chandrababu.
If election is held now, who will the above mentioned people vote for?
Reddy community people will vote for Jagan. There is no chance that all Muslims will vote for YCP.
If TDP breaks relations with BJP, a part of Muslim community will vote for TDP. So, in the first category, the number of votes for Jagan will decrease.
Coming to second category, of those who won the benefits of social schemes, some who are thankful to YS and those who feel that they will be deprived of those benefits had cast their votes to YCP.
Due to these two reasons, their votes for YCP will go down this time.
Since YCP wave prevailed in the past, neutral persons voted for YCP. This is not possible now.
The hatred on Congress in AP has also declined. So, though they do not win even a single seat, they can probably attract more number of votes. So, some of the votes obtained by YCP last time will now be cast for Congress.
Since TDP government provided 43% fitment to employees, advanced retirement age to 60 years and is not exerting much pressure, the votes for YCP will decline this time.
Who voted for TDP in 2014 and why?
Kamma, part of BC and SC voted for TDP.
Because of Janasena, Kapu people voted for TDP.
Due to Modi wave, some more votes were cast for Telugu Desam party.
Due to Chandrababu ‘s experience, many felt that he was the only one who can cause development.
Loan waiver has attracted many votes.
What if election is held now?
If Janasena does not support TDP, the number of votes from Kapu community for TDP will go down but it will not be a plus to YCP.
There is no Modi wave in AP now. Since public are furious on BJP, there is no loss for TDP even if BJP contests separately.
Though waiver of loans is not done completely, farmers would still cast their votes for TDP as it was partially done.
There is no momentary disappointment for those who believed that Chandrababu will develop the state. They believe that though center is not co-operative, Babu is trying his best. So, these votes are for him.
Also TDP ‘s strength is improving as YCP leaders are joining the party.
On the whole, it is clear that YCP will get much lesser votes than 2014 election this time. There is scope for TDP to win more votes than earlier. BJP ‘s situation will be the same as what Congress faced in AP. If election is conducted at the moment, Janasena will also show no impact.